Kenya’s newly signed preliminary bilateral trade agreement with China, granting zero-duty market access to 98.2 percent of Kenyan exports, marks more than a commercial breakthrough. It reflects a deeper recalibration of Africa’s trade diplomacy at a time when global economic alliances are increasingly shaped by tariffs, geopolitical competition, and competing development models.

The agreement follows China’s landmark announcement in June last year that it would eliminate tariffs on nearly all imports-covering between 98 and 100 percent of tariff lines-from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Beijing. By extending duty-free access beyond least developed countries to include middle-income economies such as Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt, and South Africa, China has signaled a strategic intent to reshape its economic engagement with the continent.

For Kenya, the implications are immediate and potentially transformative. Trade and Investments Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui described the deal as a gateway to the Chinese market for a broad range of Kenyan products, particularly agricultural exports that form the backbone of the domestic economy.

“This agreement opens the Chinese market to Kenyan goods at zero duty, with a particular emphasis on agriculture,” Kinyanjui said in media remarks. “It is a corrective measure that could gradually narrow the trade gap with Asia.”

The trade gap Kinyanjui refers to is stark. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database, Kenya exported goods worth just $196.55 million to China in 2024, while imports from China reached $8.58 billion. This imbalance has long fueled concerns in Nairobi about overdependence on Asian manufactured imports and the limited competitiveness of Kenyan exports in major global markets.

The Early Harvest phase of the agreement seeks to address this imbalance by prioritizing high-potential agricultural exports, including avocados, tea, coffee, and macadamia nuts-products that have seen rising demand among China’s expanding middle class.

“This trade agreement comes with immediate gains for Kenyan farmers and agribusiness exporters,” Kinyanjui noted. “It signifies China’s commitment to strengthening our trade ties further.”

Kenya has spent the past decade attempting to diversify its export basket beyond traditional commodities and into agro-processing and value-added goods. Zero-duty access to the world’s second-largest economy provides a rare opportunity to test whether that ambition can finally be realized at scale.

Beyond economics, the deal underscores the increasingly geopolitical nature of trade policy. Hannah Wanjie, a Kenyan economist and CEO of Development Reimagined, argues that Kenya’s engagement with China must be understood within a broader strategic context.

“Kenya’s engagement with China is not just about diversifying export markets,” Wanjie said. “It is part of a broader strategy to resist excessive dependence on traditional Western markets and financial institutions.”

According to Wanjie, China’s tariff-free access offers African countries leverage in a global system where trade is often used as a political tool.

“While countries like the United States are increasingly using tariffs to punish African countries, China is using tariffs to foster relationships,” she noted. “As President Trump raises tariffs on African exports, China is offering zero tariffs. Africa will choose tariff-free access.”

China’s policy was announced during high-level forums such as the China–Africa Economic and Trade Expo and meetings of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), reinforcing Beijing’s intent to institutionalize its economic partnership with Africa rather than treat it as transactional or temporary.

Dianah Ngui, an economist and researcher at the Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), believes China’s zero-tariff policy is designed not only to boost trade volumes but also to correct longstanding structural imbalances in China–Africa trade.

“China is presenting itself as a listening, reliable, and equitable partner for the Global South,” Ngui said. “It is offering Africa what the West has consistently refused to offer.”

Ngui argues that extending zero-tariff access regardless of income status makes China’s offer more comprehensive than Western trade frameworks, which often impose eligibility conditions tied to governance, human rights, or political alignment.

“Unlike Western powers, China is unlikely to withdraw this agreement based on political considerations,” she added, noting that the policy is likely to enhance China’s soft power across the continent.

China has further reinforced this strategy by introducing “green lanes” to fast-track the export of selected African agricultural products and by establishing a dedicated China–Africa trade cooperation fund. These measures are intended to reduce logistical bottlenecks and regulatory friction that have historically limited Africa’s ability to benefit from preferential trade access.

The growing appeal of China’s trade terms has not gone unnoticed in Washington. James Shikwati, an economist and director of the Inter-Region Economic Network (IREN), warns that African countries may face pressure to scale back engagement with China in exchange for continued access to Western markets.

“We have heard reports of countries being pressured by the US to abandon the China deal in exchange for renewal of duty-free privileges under the African Growth and Opportunity Act,” Shikwati said. “Africa must resist such intimidation.”

AGOA, first enacted in 2000, provides eligible African countries with duty-free access to the US market for more than 1,800 products. On January 12, 2026, the US House of Representatives voted to extend AGOA for another three years, up to 2028. The bill now awaits approval by the Senate and President Donald Trump.

Shikwati views the extension as a strategic move aimed at countering China’s expanding trade footprint in Africa.

“China’s zero-tariff policy is not sitting well with the West, particularly the US,” he said. “But Africa should not be forced to choose.”

“If both AGOA and the China deal are beneficial, then Africa should have both,” Shikwati argued. “What matters is fair trade and market access, not the geography of the partner.”

For Kenya, the China deal arrives at a sensitive moment. The country faces rising debt pressures, domestic economic challenges, and a shifting global environment marked by protectionism and great-power rivalry. Zero-tariff access to China offers relief, but it also places responsibility on Nairobi to ensure that local producers can meet quality, volume, and regulatory requirements.

More broadly, the agreement highlights a defining question for Africa’s economic future: whether the continent can leverage competition between global powers to secure better trade terms without compromising its sovereignty.

“China is telling Africa that it is ready to listen and work respectfully,” Shikwati concluded. “Africa must embrace that idea-without closing doors elsewhere.”

As Kenya begins to operationalize the agreement, its success or failure will be closely watched across the continent. If zero-tariff access translates into tangible export growth, it could strengthen Africa’s bargaining position globally and accelerate a shift toward a more multipolar trade order-one in which African economies are no longer passive participants but strategic negotiators.

For now, Kenya’s deal with China stands as a test case for whether preferential access, when combined with domestic reform and strategic diplomacy, can finally deliver the long-promised benefits of global trade to African producers.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings