One year into the term of Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Lebanon finds itself navigating one of the most fragile and contradictory moments in its modern history. The debate over the president’s role, vision and capacity to act rages on in a political environment chronically incapable of consensus and within a society that, despite decades of war, crisis and collapse, still struggles to translate hardship into collective agreement. Yet to view Lebanon’s presidential predicament in isolation would be deeply misleading. The challenges facing Joseph Aoun are inseparable from the profound regional and global earthquakes now reshaping the international order.

At first glance, Lebanon’s problems may appear marginal when set against the scale of turmoil engulfing the Middle East and the wider world. Economic collapse, institutional paralysis and social fragmentation are no longer uniquely Lebanese phenomena. However, Lebanon’s extreme vulnerability, coupled with its geostrategic position, makes it particularly sensitive to external shocks. The country has rarely been a master of its own fate; today, it is more exposed than ever to forces well beyond its borders.

Geographically and historically, Lebanon’s immediate environment is defined by Syria and Israel, two neighbors whose trajectories have shaped Lebanese politics for decades. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks the end of an era that cast a long shadow over Lebanon. For decades, Damascus exercised decisive influence over Lebanese political life, often in heavy-handed and coercive ways. Syria, for all its contradictions, was perceived by many Lebanese as a fraternal or even twin entity, bound by geography, history and social ties. The collapse of centralized authority in Syria has removed one form of domination, but it has also opened the door to uncertainty, insecurity and shifting power balances that inevitably spill into Lebanon.

Israel, by contrast, has never occupied a comparable place in the Lebanese imagination. Its establishment in 1948 on the ruins of Palestine and the Nakba that followed created a foundational rupture in the region. For Lebanon, solidarity with the Palestinian people has come at a heavy price. Israeli military operations, repeated invasions and assaults on Lebanese territory – including Palestinian refugee camps – have profoundly shaped Lebanon’s security landscape. These pressures contributed to the emergence of resistance movements, first rooted in Arab nationalism and leftist ideologies, and later acquiring an explicitly Islamic identity through Hezbollah, backed by Iran.

This brings Iran to the center of the current regional equation. For years, Tehran’s influence across the Near East – through allies, proxies and ideological networks – has been one of the defining features of regional politics. Today, however, Iran itself stands at a critical crossroads. Israel’s success in weakening Hezbollah militarily and disrupting supply routes following developments in Syria has altered the balance of power. At the same time, Iran faces mounting internal and external pressures that could redefine its role altogether.

Whatever path Iran takes, Lebanon will feel the consequences. The stakes extend far beyond the survival or collapse of a single regime. A fragmented or destabilized Iran would not contain its effects within national borders. Ethnic, linguistic, religious and sectarian fault lines could become vectors of contagion across the region, reigniting dormant conflicts and accelerating centrifugal tendencies. In such a scenario, the redrawing of political maps – once considered unthinkable – becomes a tangible possibility.

Conversely, a post-Islamic Republic Iran governed by a Persian nationalist leadership reminiscent of the shah’s era offers no guarantee of stability for Arab neighbors. History casts a long shadow here as well. Memories of Iran’s role as the “policeman of the Gulf,” disputes over the Shatt al-Arab waterway, and the occupation of Gulf islands remain vivid. These historical experiences suggest that a nationalist Iran, aligned with Western interests and Israel’s regional vision, could prove no less disruptive than the current regime.

Israel’s own trajectory compounds these dangers. The Likud-led vision for the region, centered on fragmentation and the weakening of any large, coherent political entities in West Asia, threatens to undermine the foundations of regional coexistence. Under such a vision, countries like Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – already fragile – face the risk of further disintegration. The ripple effects would inevitably reach the Gulf states, the Arabian Peninsula, Türkiye and Egypt, drawing the entire region into a prolonged period of instability.

In this context, Lebanon’s presidency appears almost symbolic, caught between internal paralysis and overwhelming external forces. President Joseph Aoun presides over a state whose sovereignty is constrained, whose institutions are hollowed out and whose political class remains deeply divided. The question is not merely whether Lebanon can reform, but whether it can survive intact as a political entity amid the collapse of the regional order that once, however imperfectly, sustained it.

Yet the crisis is not confined to the Middle East. The global order itself is undergoing a profound transformation. Europe, often viewed as a model of stability and integration, is experiencing its own existential anxieties. Since Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and subsequent shifts in US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, Europe’s security architecture has been shaken. NATO, long the cornerstone of transatlantic security, appears increasingly fragile, its cohesion undermined by diverging interests and declining trust.

Seemingly peripheral issues now carry explosive potential. Greenland, an island once regarded as strategically marginal, has emerged as a geopolitical flashpoint capable of unsettling long-held assumptions about sovereignty, alliances and power. Canada’s recent decision under Prime Minister Mark Carney to conclude a major trade agreement with China illustrates the changing calculus even among America’s closest allies. Western analysts quickly interpreted this move as a pragmatic response to Washington’s unprecedented rhetoric questioning Canada’s sovereignty.

Similarly, European solidarity with Denmark over Greenland reflects a deeper crisis of confidence in the United States. Many European elites now perceive an unsettling convergence between Washington and Moscow, forcing them to reconsider their strategic dependencies. This uncertainty is amplified by domestic political shifts across Europe, where moderate parties are in decline and hard-right movements are gaining ground, reshaping national and continental politics alike.

Beyond Europe, the picture is equally complex. The far right has achieved notable successes in parts of Latin America, while the BRICS grouping looms as an ambiguous but potentially transformative force in global politics. Much hinges on whether the United States can disrupt China’s momentum by drawing India away from the bloc – a strategic contest with implications far beyond economics.

Amid all these shifts, Africa’s future remains one of the most intriguing and consequential unknowns. As global powers recalibrate their priorities, the continent may emerge as a central arena of competition, cooperation or conflict, with profound implications for the global South.

Against this backdrop, Lebanon’s fragile presidency is a microcosm of a world in transition. President Joseph Aoun’s first year in office has unfolded during a period when old certainties are collapsing faster than new frameworks can emerge. For Lebanon, the challenge is existential: to navigate internal reform while surviving external storms. For the region and the world, the question is whether a new, more stable order can arise from the current chaos – or whether fragmentation and uncertainty will define the years ahead.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings