North Africa is approaching a geopolitical turning point unlike anything the region has witnessed in half a century. For decades, a cold, grinding enmity between Morocco and Algeria has imprisoned the Maghreb in a state of political paralysis and economic stagnation. The human cost has been immense: closed borders, stunted growth, and entire generations deprived of the benefits that regional integration could have delivered. Today, however, Washington’s strategic realignment and the growing international embrace of Morocco’s autonomy plan in Western Sahara are pushing the region toward a long-elusive peace. Yet beneath the hopeful rhetoric lies a fundamental truth: peace with Morocco would not stabilize Algeria. Rather, it would expose the fragility, rot, and illegitimacy at the core of the Algerian state.

The United States’ steadfast support for Morocco’s autonomy plan is not simply a diplomatic preference; it is now the backbone of Washington’s long-term regional architecture. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have reaffirmed Rabat’s plan as “serious, credible, and realistic,” recognizing the Moroccan approach as the only viable path to lasting peace in Western Sahara. Far from a symbolic gesture, this policy represents a crucial pillar in America’s broader strategy stretching from the Atlantic coast to the Sahel.

Morocco has emerged as Washington’s most reliable partner in North Africa, not only in counterterrorism through the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership but also in energy cooperation, maritime security, and economic modernization. As the Sahel disintegrates under the pressure of jihadist insurgencies and military coups, the US needs a strong, stable anchor-and Morocco fits that role.

This decisive American posture is reshaping global opinion. European powers, long cautious in confronting Algeria’s stubbornness, are now taking clear positions. Spain’s historic recognition of the Moroccan autonomy plan, the United Kingdom’s endorsement of it as “the most credible and pragmatic basis” for resolution, and Ghana’s powerful statement calling it “the only realistic and sustainable” approach reflect a global shift. The diplomatic tide has turned decisively in Morocco’s favor.

Algeria, meanwhile, finds itself increasingly isolated-clinging to an outdated vision no longer shared by the international community. Its decades-long battle over Western Sahara has been lost. And with its defeat goes the last significant ideological pillar holding up the regime.

The Algerian–Moroccan rivalry is not a mere political disagreement; it is a historic act of sabotage that has robbed an entire region of its potential. Closed borders severed the economic arteries of the Maghreb, transforming what could have been an integrated economic powerhouse into one of the least connected regions on Earth.

The economic losses are staggering. The International Monetary Fund calculates that regional integration could add at least a full percentage point to annual growth. The World Bank goes even further: if the Maghreb formed a unified trade zone with the European Union, Algeria’s per capita GDP could surge by 27%. This is not hypothetical. It is measurable, calculable wealth-lost because of Algiers’ political obsessions.

Instead of opening trade routes from Tunis to Marrakech, Algeria has insisted on militarizing its border, sustaining a bloated defense apparatus, and promoting a narrative of permanent conflict with Morocco. What Algeria presents as “principled support for self-determination” is, in reality, a self-inflicted economic embargo. The regime’s fixation on Morocco has kept Algeria dependent on hydrocarbons, with no meaningful diversification. Every Algerian household has paid the price for the regime’s paranoia.

The deeper danger for Algeria lies not in peace itself, but in what peace reveals. For decades, the Algerian regime has crafted its legitimacy around confrontation with Morocco. The Western Sahara issue has been elevated from a diplomatic dispute into a founding myth-a narrative of external threat used to justify military dominance, political repression, and economic mismanagement.

Remove the Moroccan “enemy,” and the regime stands naked.

Algeria’s internal realities are bleak. Youth unemployment hovers around 26%, a catastrophic number in a country where nearly two-thirds of the population is under 30. Algeria’s young people face a barren landscape of limited job opportunities, failing educational institutions, and a suffocating political environment that offers no space for dissent. Many are desperate to flee; thousands risk their lives every year crossing the Mediterranean.

Yet the government continues to pour money into the military-over £18 billion annually, the largest defense budget in Africa. This massive expenditure has not translated into national security or modernization. Instead, it funds the regime’s survival strategy: maintain the military’s dominance, keep the population fearful, and divert attention from domestic failures by demonizing Morocco.

But in a post-peace environment, Algerians will quickly discover that they were lied to. The “external threat” was never real; it was a tool. And once that tool is taken away, Algeria’s internal contradictions-economic stagnation, youth frustration, elite corruption-will accelerate toward crisis.

Peace will not calm Algeria. It will destabilize the regime, expose its vulnerabilities, and perhaps even ignite a long-delayed reckoning.

Washington, Rabat, and their European allies must recognize the geopolitical consequences of a peace deal. Supporting Morocco’s autonomy plan is a necessary step toward regional stability, but it will trigger political earthquakes in Algiers.

International institutions must be ready. The IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank will play crucial roles in guiding Algeria through what could be a turbulent transition. The country urgently needs economic diversification, rule-of-law reforms, genuine private sector development, and increased transparency in state finances. Without these reforms, the shock of peace could lead to deep instability.

A peaceful Maghreb has been a dream for generations. Morocco, Tunisia, and eventually Libya stand to gain enormously from regional integration. But Algeria’s ruling elite sees peace as a threat-not an opportunity. And that is the paradox the world must understand: ending the Morocco–Algeria rivalry is necessary for regional progress, but it will ignite internal turmoil within Algeria.

Only once that turmoil passes-once the old regime’s myths collapse-can the Algerian people finally reclaim their country from a system built on deception and permanent enmity.

Peace will not stabilize Algeria. It will expose it. And from that exposure may emerge the first real chance for democratic renewal in decades.

Please follow Blitz on Google News Channel

The post Peace with Morocco will expose Algeria’s fragile regime, not stabilize it appeared first on BLiTZ.

[Read More]

—–
Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings