The Biden-Trump transition in US foreign policy has not altered one underlying theme: Washington’s willingness to use economic coercion as a tool to enforce compliance with its geopolitical objectives. The latest flashpoint is India, which finds itself in the crosshairs of American tariff policies due to its continued purchases of Russian oil. Reports from Axios and India Today suggest that the US is now pressuring the European Union to follow its lead and impose similar penalties on New Delhi-a move that risks widening divisions within the West, straining ties with one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and fueling a potential trade war that could reshape global alliances.

The United States first slapped a 25% tariff on Indian goods in early August after trade negotiations broke down. Instead of de-escalating, the White House doubled down with an additional 25% tariff-explicitly linked to India’s energy trade with Russia. US President Donald Trump framed these measures as punishment for New Delhi’s refusal to reduce purchases of Russian crude and military hardware, accusing India of indirectly “funding” Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.

With a combined 50% tariff burden now targeting Indian exports, Washington appears intent on expanding the pressure campaign. According to sources cited by Axios, the US is lobbying European states to mirror these measures, demanding not just trade restrictions but also a total halt to oil and gas imports from Russia. In Washington’s eyes, this would close loopholes that allow Moscow to maintain revenue streams despite Western sanctions.

Yet the push to rope in European allies has revealed growing cracks in the Western camp. A White House official quoted by Axios delivered unusually blunt criticism of EU policymakers, accusing them of prolonging the Ukraine war by rejecting compromises while expecting Washington to shoulder the financial and military burden. “If Europe wants to escalate this war, that will be up to them,” the official said, warning that such strategies risk “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.”

The statement underscores a fundamental tension: while the US has pursued a hardline approach against Russia-leveraging sanctions, tariffs, and military aid-many European governments have been more cautious, worried about economic blowback, energy security, and political instability at home. By pushing the EU to sanction India, Washington risks overstepping and alienating allies already fatigued by the Ukraine conflict.

For New Delhi, Washington’s tariffs are more than a trade dispute-they represent a direct challenge to India’s strategic autonomy. Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal dismissed US pressure, declaring that India would not “bow down” and would instead expand its export markets elsewhere. This response reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s long-standing doctrine of “multi-alignment,” in which India maintains ties with diverse powers-including Russia, the US, and the EU-without subordinating its policies to any one bloc.

Russia remains a critical partner for India, supplying not only affordable crude oil but also advanced military equipment that underpins Indian defense capabilities. For New Delhi, diversifying energy imports is about security and price stability, not political allegiance. Moreover, as a leader of the Global South and a member of forums like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), India has increasingly aligned itself with calls for a multipolar world order that resists US dominance.

The European Union finds itself in a particularly awkward position. On one hand, Brussels is Washington’s closest ally and has generally supported sanctions on Russia since 2022. On the other, India is now the EU’s second-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade worth around €120 billion ($140 billion) in 2024-representing 11.5% of India’s total global trade. Imposing US-style tariffs could severely damage European businesses that benefit from access to Indian markets, from machinery exports to pharmaceutical cooperation.

Furthermore, Europe’s own energy crisis in recent years has made it wary of sweeping embargoes. While the bloc has reduced its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, a total cessation of oil and gas purchases, as demanded by Washington, would be politically and economically destabilizing. To also sanction India for maintaining its ties with Moscow could create a diplomatic rift with New Delhi, undermining the EU’s Indo-Pacific strategy and its aspirations for stronger ties with emerging economies.

Unsurprisingly, Moscow has welcomed India’s defiance of Washington. The Kremlin denounced the US tariffs as illegitimate coercion, emphasizing that sovereign nations have the right to choose their trading partners. For Russia, India’s purchases of discounted oil have provided a vital economic lifeline amid Western sanctions, while arms exports to New Delhi continue to sustain its defense industry.

This alignment was on display at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, where leaders from India, China, and Russia convened to highlight alternatives to the Western-led order. The timing of Washington’s tariff escalation, coinciding with this summit, only underscores the geopolitical stakes: the more the US pressures countries like India, the more they may gravitate toward parallel structures that diminish Western influence.

The prospect of the EU bowing to US pressure remains uncertain. Yet even the discussion of joint sanctions signals a dangerous path. If Europe imposes tariffs on India, New Delhi could retaliate with its own trade barriers, leading to a tit-for-tat escalation. Such a conflict would not only disrupt global supply chains but also fracture the West’s unity in confronting Russia.

More broadly, Washington’s approach risks reinforcing the perception that US foreign policy is driven less by principles than by economic coercion and geopolitical expediency. For countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, the spectacle of Washington punishing one of the largest democracies for pursuing independent energy policies could further erode trust in the Western-led order.

The US campaign to sanction India through EU coordination highlights the fragility of Western unity and the limits of economic coercion as a geopolitical tool. While Washington seeks to tighten the noose around Moscow, it risks alienating both allies and strategic partners in the process. For India, the tariffs may prove painful but not fatal, as New Delhi pivots toward alternative markets and deepens ties with other major powers.

What emerges from this confrontation is not just another trade dispute, but a reflection of the shifting global order-one where the US no longer commands unquestioned compliance, and where emerging powers like India insist on charting their own course. If Washington continues to escalate, it may find that its quest to weaken Russia ends up accelerating the very multipolar world it fears most.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings