After decades of hostility and unresolved territorial disputes, the South Caucasus is witnessing a historic moment. The recent peace framework signed between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Washington marks a turning point for the region, potentially reshaping geopolitics, economics, and diplomatic relations. While the immediate beneficiaries are the signatory states, Turkiye stands out as one of the countries poised to gain the most from this breakthrough.

For over thirty years, the borders separating Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well as Turkiye and Armenia, have been largely closed, a symbol of entrenched mistrust and conflict. The signing of this peace framework, which commits both Yerevan and Baku to end hostilities, respect each other’s territorial integrity, and normalize relations, is an extraordinary diplomatic achievement. Beyond its bilateral significance, the agreement carries profound implications for regional stability, economic connectivity, and the strategic ambitions of Turkiye.

Turkiye, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, has long sought a resolution to tensions in the South Caucasus. In recent years, Ankara has actively pursued normalization talks with Armenia, aiming to bridge the divide that has kept the Turkish-Armenian border closed since the early 1990s. The current peace framework offers Turkiye an unprecedented opportunity to accelerate this process and potentially reopen the border, a development that could redefine Ankara’s strategic posture in the region.

Ankara welcomed the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement with enthusiasm, highlighting the potential for a planned strategic transit corridor. This corridor, a replacement for the original Zangezur Corridor plan and now dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” promises to bolster Turkiye’s energy exports, trade flows, and regional influence. By facilitating a more direct connection to Europe, the corridor could transform the South Caucasus into a hub of economic activity, benefiting not only Turkiye but also Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The broader significance of this deal extends far beyond economic incentives. The South Caucasus has long been a volatile region, encircled by powerful neighbors—Turkiye, Iran, and Russia—each with vested interests. Historically, the region has been a site of intersecting geopolitical ambitions, with both material and non-material factors complicating the path to stability. By successfully mediating a peace agreement, the United States, through President Donald Trump’s facilitation, has played a pivotal role. Yet, this breakthrough also reflects shifting regional dynamics, particularly the waning influence of Russia and Iran.

Moscow’s traditional role as a power broker in Azerbaijan-Armenia relations has diminished over recent years. Relations between the Kremlin and both Baku and Yerevan have cooled, a development that partly explains why the peace deal was brokered in Washington rather than Moscow. While Russia and Iran officially welcomed the agreement, their cautious statements warning against “foreign interference” underscore their recognition that the South Caucasus is gradually shifting away from their exclusive influence.

The route to this landmark deal passed through Abu Dhabi, Istanbul, and Washington, highlighting the growing influence of Gulf states and Turkiye in the South Caucasus. Turkiye, in particular, has emerged as a key strategic actor. Ankara’s influence was instrumental during moments of heightened tension, including a flare-up of conflict in April, when it actively intervened to prevent escalation. By leveraging its close ties with Azerbaijan, Turkiye ensured the parties remained on track for a diplomatic resolution. Moreover, Ankara’s efforts prevented potential political shifts in Armenia that could have favored Russia, safeguarding Turkiye’s strategic interests.

The Azerbaijan-Armenia deal offers Turkiye three principal gains, each reinforcing its regional and global position. The first is diplomatic. For decades, Turkiye’s strained relations with Armenia have been a point of friction with the United States and European Union. Armenian lobby groups in Washington have historically influenced US policy toward Turkiye, contributing to political tensions dating back to the 1980s. Likewise, Brussels has frequently expressed concerns about Ankara’s unresolved relations with Yerevan. The new peace framework addresses one of these longstanding diplomatic irritants, paving the way for improved relations with key Western partners.

The second major gain is economic. The strategic transit corridor promises to unlock a new era of regional trade and connectivity. By linking Azerbaijan and Armenia to Europe via Turkiye, the corridor will enable faster and more cost-efficient export routes for oil, gas, and manufactured goods. Turkiye stands to benefit as the central hub of this trade network, with increased transit revenues and opportunities for investment. Armenia, despite maintaining legal control of the corridor, will also gain financially through transit fees and enhanced trade flows. For Azerbaijan, the corridor offers a crucial avenue for energy and goods to reach European markets efficiently, further integrating the region into global trade networks.

Thirdly, the peace agreement strengthens Turkiye’s ongoing normalization efforts with Armenia. The deal creates a more favorable environment for Ankara and Yerevan to advance diplomatic dialogue. Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan emphasized that the framework marks an “important milestone” for normalization, while Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan suggests optimism regarding the implementation of existing agreements. Experts involved in Turkish-Armenian diplomatic efforts have noted that the current context represents the closest the two nations have come to normalization in decades, with momentum favoring both sides.

The strategic implications of the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal are profound. Turkiye’s strengthened role enhances its leverage in the South Caucasus, provides economic advantages, and aligns Ankara more closely with US interests in the region. Additionally, the corridor and peace framework could serve as a template for regional cooperation, reducing long-standing tensions and fostering stability in a historically volatile area.

In conclusion, the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace agreement is far more than a bilateral reconciliation. For Turkiye, it represents a diplomatic, economic, and strategic victory. By supporting stability in the South Caucasus, fostering regional trade, and advancing its normalization track with Armenia, Ankara solidifies its position as a key power broker in the region. While challenges remain, including potential opposition from Russia and Iran, the current framework offers a pathway toward sustained peace and prosperity. As the borders reopen and the transit corridor becomes operational, the ripple effects will likely transform the South Caucasus, turning a long-standing zone of conflict into a corridor of opportunity for Turkiye and its neighbors.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings