Lebanon’s fragile political landscape has entered a new phase of volatility as the cabinet reconvenes to discuss the contentious issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament. The debate, reignited by sustained pressure from the United States and growing fears of an expanded Israeli offensive, has triggered a political and ideological rift that threatens to destabilize the already precarious balance of power in the country.

The Lebanese government’s recent decision to instruct the national army to prepare a comprehensive plan to confine all armed forces under state control by the end of 2025 is being hailed by some as a historic step toward reasserting national sovereignty. But for Hezbollah and its allies, the move represents nothing less than a betrayal – a decision they argue puts Lebanon’s defense strategy in jeopardy and exposes the country to foreign domination.

Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Shiite militia and political party, swiftly rejected the cabinet’s decision, stating on August 6 that it would treat the decree “as if it did not exist.” In a fiery statement, the group accused the government of committing a “grave sin” and capitulating to US and Israeli pressure.

“This decision undermines Lebanon’s sovereignty and gives Israel a free hand to tamper with its security, geography, politics, and future existence,” Hezbollah’s statement declared. The group further warned that the move serves only to deepen national divisions and would not be accepted by “the resistance and its supporters.”

The resistance in this context refers to Hezbollah’s long-held identity as Lebanon’s frontline defense against Israel – a narrative that the group has used for decades to justify retaining its vast arsenal, including an estimated 150,000 rockets and advanced drone capabilities.

The decision to revisit the disarmament of Hezbollah follows weeks of mounting pressure from Washington. US envoy Tom Barrack has made multiple trips to Beirut, reportedly delivering a proposal that includes a structured timeline for Hezbollah’s disarmament in exchange for increased international economic assistance and debt restructuring aid.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, under pressure from Western donors and reform advocates, announced on August 5 that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) had been tasked with drafting a plan to implement a November ceasefire agreement that ended over a year of sporadic conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.

The announcement marks a dramatic departure from the longstanding political consensus since the end of Lebanon’s civil war in 1990. While all other militias agreed to disband and disarm under the Taif Agreement, Hezbollah was allowed to retain its arms under the pretext of resisting Israeli occupation in the south.

That exception has now come under scrutiny after last year’s two-month war, which saw significant destruction in southern Lebanon and northern Israel and left Hezbollah weakened both militarily and politically. Analysts say the group’s perceived vulnerabilities have emboldened the Lebanese government and international actors to revisit the question of disarmament with renewed urgency.

The political ramifications of the cabinet’s decision have been swift. Two ministers affiliated with Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal movement – led by long-time parliament speaker Nabih Berri – walked out of the August 5 cabinet meeting in protest. Their departure sent a clear signal that Lebanon’s Shiite bloc, which controls 27 out of 128 seats in parliament, could use its weight to trigger a no-confidence motion or paralyze the cabinet.

Hezbollah described the walkout as a rejection of Lebanon’s “submission to American tutelage and Israeli occupation.” The pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al Akhbar reported that the group is considering whether to withdraw its four ministers from the government entirely.

The Amal movement, too, voiced criticism. Calling for a pause and reassessment, Amal leaders labeled today’s meeting “an opportunity for correction,” hinting at possible compromise or retraction.

Iran, Hezbollah’s main financial and military patron, adopted a cautiously supportive tone. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a press conference that any decision on disarmament “will ultimately rest with Hezbollah itself.” He added, “We support it from afar, but we do not intervene in its decisions,” reaffirming Tehran’s distance while expressing confidence in Hezbollah’s resilience.

Amid the growing internal crisis, the threat of Israeli military escalation looms large. On August 6, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed two people, according to the Lebanese health ministry. These strikes are part of what Tel Aviv calls “preventative operations” aimed at deterring Hezbollah buildup near the border.

Israeli officials have repeatedly made clear that they view Hezbollah’s arsenal as a direct threat. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently warned that if Lebanon fails to act decisively, Israel “will not hesitate to take matters into its own hands.”

While a fragile ceasefire has held since November, Israeli drones and jets continue to operate in Lebanese airspace with impunity, signaling a readiness for more aggressive engagement should Hezbollah refuse to disarm.

As the cabinet reconvenes, the question remains whether Lebanon’s political factions can navigate this perilous impasse without plunging the country into further chaos. The economic crisis, marked by soaring inflation, a collapsing currency, and widespread poverty, has left the Lebanese state severely weakened.

For many Lebanese, the disarmament of Hezbollah symbolizes a necessary step toward national stability and the restoration of legitimate state authority. For others, especially in the Shiite community, it represents an existential threat – a stripping away of their only means of defense in a region rife with instability and betrayal.

With the August 7 meeting now underway, Lebanon finds itself at a historic crossroads. The outcome could either pave the way for a more unified and sovereign state or unravel the fragile threads holding its fractured political order together.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings