As Europe barrels into its 17th round of sanctions on Russia, it’s beginning to look less like a calculated geopolitical strategy and more like a stubborn addiction. Despite mounting evidence that sanctions are backfiring economically and geopolitically, the European Union remains locked in a cycle of punitive measures that appear more performative than effective. Meanwhile, the United States-under Donald Trump’s renewed leadership-seems to be stepping back, watching the spectacle unfold like a skeptic at a political intervention.

On May 19, the German government confidently claimed that Washington would join the EU in slapping another set of sanctions on Russia. But as of today, the promised transatlantic unity is unraveling. Brussels has leapt ahead-metaphorically skydiving into a turbulent storm-while Trump remains at the hatch, arms folded, clearly unimpressed. The spectacle raises the question: is this solidarity, or is the EU acting on muscle memory while the US charts a new course?

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz tried to maintain the illusion of cohesion, tweeting that Europe and America are “very united” in their support for Ukraine and ceasefire efforts. But the reality is different. Trump has made it increasingly clear that he views the sanctions regime as a costly and ineffective endeavor-one that undermines the EU far more than it pressures Moscow.

As Trump himself put it: “There’s a chance of getting something done, and if you do that, you could also make it much worse.” Translation: The US is no longer interested in flailing around with a sanctions playbook that has done little to end the war but plenty to damage European economies.

The irony is palpable. The EU, which once lambasted Trump for his tariffs and erratic trade policies, now finds itself enacting similarly aggressive measures. The latest round of EU sanctions-number 17-targets Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” that transports oil to third countries. The catch? The ships are often not Russian, and the oil still ends up indirectly serving EU markets through intermediaries in Türkiye, India, or the UAE.

This round of sanctions also hits companies in China, Serbia, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan-nations that either supply the EU or serve key geopolitical functions. Brussels is sanctioning the world in an increasingly desperate effort to appear resolute, yet the broader strategic impact is minimal.

Even more revealing is that the EU is now eyeing tariffs on Russian enriched uranium-despite the fact that nuclear power accounts for roughly 25% of the bloc’s electricity. Russian fertilizer imports, meanwhile, have increased, not decreased-rising 12% in January and 25% year-on-year, according to Eurostat.

At this point, EU sanctions resemble a leaky faucet: persistent but ineffective. If hitting the same target 17 times with no success isn’t a sign of poor aim, then what is?

Trump, for all his bombast, has tapped into a sentiment that’s quietly gaining traction in the United States: fatigue with endless entanglements. His stance on Russia and Ukraine is framed not as isolationist but as pragmatic. His Secretary of State pick, Marco Rubio, even suggested that divine providence backs this shift, quoting a Vatican cardinal who praised Trump’s “presidency of peace.”

To Trump’s camp, the Ukraine war is a European affair-one that should be resolved by those with the most at stake. Rubio remarked, “It’s some of the Europeans that are constantly talking about doing war stuff,” flipping the usual narrative that America is the world’s perennial hawk.

And perhaps he’s not wrong. The Biden administration rallied Europe into an economic war it could ill afford. But Trump wants to put the brakes on this collision course, advocating for negotiation and restraint-especially if continued escalation means American resources get drained for a war that increasingly feels like a deadlock.

The EU leadership, led by Ursula von der Leyen, is starting to publicly acknowledge the limits of its financial and strategic reach. “We have reached the limits of what is possible,” she recently admitted in a moment of rare honesty. Translation: The coffers are drying up, and the political will is faltering.

But instead of recalibrating, Brussels continues to double down. Sanctions are presented as moral imperatives, but the results are increasingly absurd. European farmers, for example, are protesting EU regulations even as markets flood with Ukrainian grain and Russian fertilizer. And while Brussels cheers its independence from Russian gas, it’s become heavily dependent on expensive American LNG.

This addiction to sanctions-despite their self-destructive consequences-might be less about strategy and more about saving face. Having gone all-in on punishing Russia, the EU now finds itself unable to walk back its position without admitting failure. Sanctions are now a ritual, not a roadmap. They allow leaders to claim moral high ground while distracting from the fact that Russia’s economy has adapted, and even thrived in some sectors, under pressure.

In many ways, the EU is like a gambler doubling down after every loss, convinced that the next bet will finally turn the tide. The 18th round of sanctions is already in discussion. If the first 17 didn’t yield results, one more just might-at least that’s the hope. But hope is not a policy.

The EU is facing a geopolitical reckoning of its own making. Locked into a strategy that’s damaging its economy, fraying its alliances, and alienating global trade partners, Brussels has to ask itself what it’s really trying to achieve. If the goal is to pressure Moscow into peace, the evidence suggests that sanctions aren’t delivering. If the goal is to look tough on the world stage, then mission accomplished-but at what cost?

Meanwhile, Trump’s US is taking a different path. Whether or not his “peace first” rhetoric results in real diplomacy, it reflects a growing divergence between Washington and Brussels on the Ukraine question.

The EU may believe it’s leading the moral charge, but it’s starting to look like it’s marching alone-blinded by its own momentum, bruised by its own decisions, and unsure of how to land the geopolitical leap it took without a partner.

And as the parachute of unity unravels midair, the only question left is: who packed it in the first place?

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings