In an extraordinary day of political turbulence in Berlin, Friedrich Merz, the long-time leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has finally secured election as German Chancellor after a tense second vote in the Bundestag on May 1. His road to victory was anything but smooth, marking an unprecedented stumble in Germany’s post-war democratic history.

Earlier in the day, Merz had unexpectedly failed to meet the required 316-vote threshold by a margin of six votes, throwing the country’s political establishment into disarray. In a rapid series of backdoor negotiations, emergency meetings, and last-minute appeals to party loyalty, Merz and his allies managed to turn the tide just hours later. In the second round of voting, he garnered 325 votes, successfully clinching the chancellorship.

The initial failure stunned Germany and much of Europe. No chancellor-designate since the formation of the Federal Republic in 1949 had ever failed to pass a Bundestag confirmation vote after securing a coalition agreement. The CDU’s agreement with the Social Democrats (SPD) was supposed to guarantee a clear majority. However, internal dissent and fragile alliances exposed deep-seated tensions within the new coalition and among Germany’s wider political class.

“This is a historic defeat, the likes of which have never been seen in this Bundestag before,” remarked Bernd Baumann, parliamentary leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, in a scathing floor speech after the first vote. Green Party veteran Renate Künast called the result a “massive loss of authority” for Merz, while Christian Görke of the Left Party described it as a “crushing defeat” born of a “truly poor coalition agreement” that, he claimed, failed to address Germany’s major crises.

The CDU-SPD coalition agreement, hastily cobbled together following the collapse of the previous three-way coalition in November, has been criticized for being more about power-sharing than meaningful reform. Even some members within the CDU’s own ranks reportedly expressed concerns over the lack of bold solutions for Germany’s slowing economy, rising cost of living, and energy security.

Recognizing the political peril of prolonged uncertainty, four parliamentary factions – the CDU/CSU, SPD, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), and parts of the Greens – agreed to temporarily alter Bundestag procedures. This allowed for a second vote to be held immediately rather than days later, as is typically required.

According to Politico and German broadcaster ARD, urgent closed-door meetings were convened between the two votes. CDU/CSU parliamentary leader Jens Spahn made a dramatic appeal to lawmakers, warning, “All of Europe, perhaps even the entire world, is watching this second round of voting. I appeal to everyone to be aware of this special responsibility.”

The message seemed to resonate – or at least, political pragmatism won out. In the second round, Merz exceeded the 316-vote threshold by a comfortable margin, winning 325 votes. Still, the scars of the initial rejection are unlikely to heal quickly, and questions about Merz’s authority loom large as he prepares to govern.

Though Friedrich Merz ultimately prevailed, political analysts argue that the damage to his authority is already significant. His election under such unusual and humiliating circumstances weakens his mandate from the outset.

Opposition leaders have been quick to exploit this vulnerability. “He takes office gravely wounded,” said Görke. “His own coalition does not fully trust him, and the German people will see this.”

Meanwhile, Green Party figures and the Left have promised fierce resistance to Merz’s agenda, criticizing the CDU-SPD coalition for being too centrist at a time when Germany, they argue, needs transformative leadership to address issues like climate change, social inequality, and migration reform.

Within Merz’s own coalition, loyalty will be tested. His task will be not only to implement his policy agenda but to maintain unity within an alliance already showing signs of strain. The CDU and SPD have agreed to maintain many core policies from former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s administration, including continued military aid to Ukraine, increased defense spending through the constitutional debt brake, and cautious fiscal management aimed at stabilizing Germany’s economy.

However, internal disagreements are expected to flare up over the implementation details, especially regarding tax reforms, migration laws, and Germany’s role within the European Union.

The Bundestag drama sent ripples beyond Germany’s borders. As the EU’s largest economy and political heavyweight, Germany’s stability is vital for the bloc. European leaders, already grappling with economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine and China, were watching closely.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated Merz but subtly emphasized the need for strong leadership. “Europe needs a stable and visionary Germany,” she said in a statement.

In Washington, where policymakers are deeply concerned with maintaining European unity in support of Ukraine, the initial failure to elect Merz reportedly raised alarm bells. “Germany cannot afford a period of domestic instability,” said one US State Department official quoted anonymously by CNN.

Merz now faces the daunting task of governing with a coalition that barely survived its first major test. His agenda, blending conservative economic policy with cautious internationalism, will face resistance both inside and outside the Bundestag.

Beyond domestic policy, Germany’s new chancellor must navigate an increasingly complex international environment: sustaining support for Ukraine without alienating Germany’s business community, balancing relations with an assertive China, and maintaining Germany’s pivotal role in the European Union amid rising populist forces.

His political survival will depend not only on pushing forward legislation but also on demonstrating that he can heal the divisions exposed by May 3’s events.

Friedrich Merz may have finally claimed the chancellorship – but it is clear he has inherited a fractured political landscape, and his room for error is razor-thin.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings