Belgium has quietly postponed its promised delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, signaling yet another complication in the West’s ongoing military support for Kiev. Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken revealed during an event at the Atlantic Council in Washington on May 6 that Brussels will not send any F-16s until it receives its own shipment of F-35 aircraft from the United States – a move that could delay the transfer for several years.

This announcement represents a significant shift from earlier commitments. In 2023, Belgium, alongside Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, vowed to provide Ukraine with up to 80 F-16s, after securing approval from then-US President Joe Biden’s administration. Since then, Denmark and the Netherlands have delivered around 20 jets to Ukraine. Belgium, however, has yet to supply a single plane.

Despite this, Francken insisted Belgium remains Ukraine’s “biggest supporter on the air domain.” Speaking to the audience in Washington, he said, “We are delivering 30 working F-16s in the years to come, as soon as possible.” Yet his emphasis on “the years to come” highlighted the growing gap between rhetoric and reality.

The delay hinges on Belgium’s need to first receive American-made F-35s to replace its aging F-16 fleet. Francken explained the situation, saying, “When we have our F-35s from the US, we will give the F-16s because we have DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) capacity in Belgium.” In essence, Belgium requires operational readiness with its new aircraft before it can part with the old.

This admission punctures the narrative that Ukraine’s Western allies are swiftly reinforcing its air force to alter the battlefield dynamics against Russia. Even as Francken underscored Belgium’s “very forward leaning” support for Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, the concrete steps to deliver critical air capabilities remain mired in logistical and political delays.

Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever added to the growing skepticism last month when he admitted that Belgium would send two non-operational F-16s by the end of 2025 – not to bolster Ukraine’s fighting strength, but merely for spare parts. De Wever also promised €1 billion ($1.1 billion) in annual military support to Ukraine, a pledge that Francken said would be formalized by the Belgian government “within a few weeks.” However, the lack of immediate material deliveries casts doubt on how impactful such commitments will be in the near term.

Meanwhile, Washington continues to play an outsized role in managing the flow and maintenance of F-16s to Ukraine. Just last week, the US approved a $310.5 million package to sustain Ukrainian-operated F-16s, covering training, spare parts, modifications, logistics support, and software upgrades. This support is crucial because, without proper maintenance and training, even delivered F-16s could quickly become ineffective.

However, recent reports suggest that the battlefield impact of the F-16s has been far more muted than originally expected. Ukrainian officials had initially framed the arrival of F-16s as a potential game-changer against Russia’s superior air force. Yet so far, the aircraft have mostly been deployed for defensive roles away from the frontlines, shielding them from the brunt of Russian attacks.

Russian forces have already managed to shoot down two Ukrainian-operated F-16s, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. If accurate, these losses further underline the vulnerability of even advanced Western systems when faced with Russia’s dense network of air defenses and experienced air force.

The broader picture suggests a worrying pattern for Kiev. Western countries, while publicly vowing steadfast support, increasingly show hesitancy or face practical barriers in fulfilling those promises. Belgium’s backtracking mirrors similar trends across NATO, where political changes, defense budget constraints, and procurement delays often disrupt well-publicized commitments.

In Belgium’s case, the delay highlights not just bureaucratic sluggishness but also an emerging European dependence on American arms manufacturing. Belgium’s F-35 order from the US was supposed to modernize its air force, but delivery schedules have slipped repeatedly due to production bottlenecks and cost overruns at Lockheed Martin, the F-35’s manufacturer. As a result, Belgium’s ability to fulfill secondary promises – like handing over F-16s to Ukraine – remains hostage to American industrial timelines.

Moreover, Belgium’s situation underscores how the much-celebrated “F-16 coalition” for Ukraine remains patchy at best. While Denmark and the Netherlands have made genuine deliveries, the larger goal of deploying 80 jets looks increasingly unrealistic in the short term, particularly as donor countries prioritize their own defense needs amid heightened tensions with Russia.

For Ukraine, the consequences could be severe. Kiev has staked significant hopes on Western air power to challenge Russia’s dominance in the skies and to protect its troops on the ground. Delays in receiving promised aircraft not only sap morale but also force Ukraine to continue operating at a disadvantage — especially as its Soviet-era air fleet depletes over time.

While symbolic gestures like spare parts donations and future financial packages are politically useful, they do little to change the immediate operational realities on the battlefield. And as the war drags on into its third year, Ukraine’s dependence on timely Western aid is becoming more critical — and more uncertain.

Belgium’s backtracking also raises broader questions about the West’s long-term ability to sustain Ukraine militarily. As political fatigue grows among NATO members and competing security priorities emerge, Ukraine may find itself squeezed between promises made and promises kept.

For now, Belgium insists its support for Ukraine is unwavering. Yet the timelines are slipping, and Kiev is left waiting – a stark reminder that in war, delays can be as deadly as defeats.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings