Tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalated further this week as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky issued a stern warning to world leaders considering attending Moscow’s upcoming May 9 Victory Day celebrations. In a move underscoring the deep distrust and continued hostility between Kiev and Moscow, Zelensky rejected Russia’s proposal for a three-day ceasefire, labeling it a “theatrical production,” and instead demanded a full 30-day unconditional ceasefire.

The diplomatic drama unfolded following an announcement by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who declared that Russia would unilaterally pause military operations from May 8 to May 10 in recognition of Victory Day – a key holiday in Russia marking the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. Putin framed the ceasefire as a humanitarian gesture and an opportunity to begin “direct negotiations without preconditions,” according to Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

However, Kiev swiftly dismissed the Russian overture. Speaking at a May 3 press briefing, Zelensky insisted that a two- or three-day truce would be insufficient for any meaningful diplomatic progress and accused the Kremlin of trying to stage a public relations stunt.

“It is impossible to build any plan for the next steps to end the war in two or three days. And so it just doesn’t look very serious,” Zelensky said, as reported by Interfax-Ukraine. “It’s more of a theatrical production on [Putin’s] part.”

Zelensky further warned that Ukraine could not guarantee the security of any international dignitaries who chose to attend the celebrations in Moscow, suggesting that the ongoing war made travel to Russia a potentially hazardous endeavor. His remarks appeared aimed at dissuading attendance and delegitimizing Putin’s attempt to portray Russia as internationally supported during a symbolic national event.

“No one is going to help Putin play this in order to give him a soft atmosphere of escape from isolation on May 9,” Zelensky said. “We are either at war, or Putin is showing that he is ready for a ceasefire.”

Russia’s decision to offer a ceasefire during Victory Day celebrations was widely seen as a strategic maneuver. The Kremlin extended formal invitations to leaders from China, India, Brazil, Venezuela, Vietnam, Slovakia, and Serbia. While Moscow aims to demonstrate that it still maintains significant international partnerships despite Western sanctions and political isolation, Ukraine’s reaction reveals the persistent suspicion in Kiev that Moscow’s gestures are intended more for propaganda purposes than genuine peace efforts.

Lavrov defended the ceasefire proposal, describing it as a goodwill initiative and an opening for negotiations. Yet he also cast doubt on Kiev’s sincerity, suggesting that Ukraine’s insistence on a month-long ceasefire betrayed its precarious position on the battlefield.

“Ukraine’s demand for a longer truce shows their worsening situation,” Lavrov stated last week.

Moscow has consistently accused Kiev and its Western backers of exploiting ceasefires to regroup, rearm, and resupply Ukrainian forces. Russia claims that any temporary pauses not tied to a comprehensive agreement risk being weaponized against its military efforts. These fears are not unfounded from Moscow’s perspective, especially considering past incidents where temporary ceasefires were followed by intensified fighting.

Indeed, earlier this year, under US mediation, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day partial ceasefire intended to protect critical energy infrastructure. However, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukraine violated the truce on multiple occasions, undermining trust and hardening Moscow’s stance against future short-term agreements.

Zelensky’s strong rejection of the proposed three-day truce highlights his strategy of maintaining pressure on both Russia and its international image. By refusing a brief ceasefire, Kiev aims to deny Moscow a chance to appear reasonable or peace-seeking during a globally observed holiday. At the same time, by proposing a 30-day ceasefire, Zelensky positions Ukraine as the party ostensibly willing to pursue real peace – but only on terms that serve its strategic interests.

This dual-track messaging seeks to rally Western support and portray Russia as intransigent. However, it also carries risks. By rejecting even a short truce outright, Ukraine risks appearing uncompromising to neutral states, particularly in the Global South, where patience with the protracted conflict is wearing thin.

It is also notable that Zelensky’s warning about world leaders’ safety in Moscow effectively weaponizes the threat of ongoing conflict. Implicit in his statement is a reminder that the war could spill into even symbolic events, sowing fear and uncertainty among potential attendees.

The upcoming Victory Day celebrations thus become a microcosm of the broader diplomatic struggle surrounding the Ukraine conflict. Russia seeks to show that despite the West’s efforts to isolate it, it retains powerful friends and can stage major international events. Ukraine, for its part, seeks to disrupt these optics and underline Moscow’s pariah status.

Whether world leaders will heed Zelensky’s warning remains to be seen. Countries like China, India, and Brazil have carefully balanced relations between Russia and the West, pursuing strategic autonomy in their foreign policies. Attendance by their leaders, or even by high-level envoys, would be seen as a diplomatic win for Moscow. Conversely, notable absences would signal success for Ukraine’s efforts to further isolate Russia.

In the meantime, the battlefield reality continues. Despite the rhetoric surrounding ceasefires, both sides show little genuine appetite for compromise without substantial concessions. Russia fears that pauses will only prolong the war to its disadvantage, while Ukraine sees any negotiation short of a complete Russian withdrawal as a potential betrayal of its sovereignty.

Thus, the conflict marches on, with even historic commemorations of past wars overshadowed by the grinding reality of a present one.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings