As tensions escalate between the United States and Iran, President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning that military action remains firmly on the table should ongoing diplomatic efforts falter. Set against the backdrop of revived nuclear negotiations in Oman on April 12, Trump’s remarks signal a hardening stance toward Tehran, reviving memories of his “maximum pressure” campaign from his first term.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on April 9, Trump confirmed that he has set a personal deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran, emphasizing that while diplomacy is the preferred route, military force is not off the table. “It’s a start. We have a little time, but we don’t have much time. Because we’re not going to let them have a nuclear weapon,” he said. “When you start talks, you know if they’re going along well or not… the conclusion would be when I think they’re not going along well.”

The comments come just days before US and Iranian officials are expected to begin negotiations in Oman-a neutral venue often used for back-channel diplomacy. While the US insists the discussions will be direct, Iran has maintained that any engagement must be indirect and framed by distrust, a result of Washington’s abrupt withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal.

Trump’s threat of force comes as part of a broader return to the foreign policy approach that defined his earlier administration. After reassuming office in January, he promptly reinstated his “maximum pressure” campaign, reimposing and expanding sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and banking sectors. His administration has accused Tehran of covertly advancing its nuclear program under the guise of peaceful energy development-a claim that Iran vehemently denies.

In March, Trump revealed that he had sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, offering an opportunity to restart talks. The letter was accompanied by a dire warning: reject the offer, and Iran could face military retaliation “the likes of which it has never seen.”

These bellicose statements appear designed to compel Tehran to the negotiating table under duress, but they also risk inflaming tensions in a region already teetering on the edge of broader conflict. Trump’s latest remarks-declaring it would be a “very bad day for Iran” if talks collapse-only serve to heighten concerns.

Perhaps most controversially, Trump also suggested that Israel would take a lead role in any potential bombing campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. “Israel would be the leader in that situation, yes,” he said, reinforcing the perception that the US and its closest ally in the region are coordinating their military strategies closely.

The prospect of Israeli involvement in any military operation against Iran will raise alarms across the Middle East. Israel has long viewed Iran’s nuclear ambitions as an existential threat, and has previously conducted covert operations and cyberattacks-such as the 2010 Stuxnet virus-to sabotage Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, an overt bombing campaign would represent a major escalation and risk drawing in neighboring countries, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and possibly even Syria.

Iran, for its part, has made it clear that it is prepared to retaliate. In a statement released by Iranian state media, military forces were reported to be on high alert. Officials have promised a “severe response” to any aggression and emphasized the nation’s readiness for a protracted conflict, should it be forced upon them.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the situation on National Nuclear Technology Day, offering a more measured, yet resolute, response to Trump’s saber-rattling. According to a press release from his office, Pezeshkian confirmed that Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi would lead the diplomatic delegation to Oman, carrying instructions from Ayatollah Khamenei.

“As the Supreme Leader has stated, the Islamic Republic is ready for engagement… but this engagement must be indirect, dignified, and accompanied by clear guarantees, because we still do not trust the other side,” the statement read.

Iran has repeatedly insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful and within the bounds of international law. It points to its compliance with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and argues that the real breach occurred when the US unilaterally abandoned the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018. That decision, championed by Trump during his first term, led to a rapid deterioration in US-Iran relations and triggered a series of confrontations, including the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.

The Oman talks offer a narrow window for diplomacy, but both sides appear deeply entrenched in their positions. For the US, the goal is a comprehensive agreement that prevents Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. For Iran, the priority is sanctions relief and the restoration of trust-a tall order given the repeated breaches and conflicting objectives.

The involvement of regional powers, particularly Israel, could also complicate negotiations. If Israel is seen as directing or participating in military actions against Iran, it may further unify Iranian hardliners and reduce the incentive for any diplomatic compromise. Moreover, neighboring Gulf States-many of which have normalized relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords-would likely be forced to take sides in a conflict they’d prefer to avoid.

European powers, meanwhile, are largely sidelined in this renewed phase of US-Iran engagement. The original JCPOA signatories-France, Germany, and the UK-have expressed concern about the collapse of the agreement but have limited leverage over the current dynamics, especially with Trump steering negotiations away from multilateral frameworks.

Trump’s approach to the Iranian nuclear issue is unmistakably high-risk. By combining overt threats with conditional diplomatic overtures, he is betting that Iran’s economic isolation will force its leadership to capitulate. But this gamble could backfire spectacularly. Iran’s leadership has survived decades of sanctions and is adept at leveraging nationalist sentiment in the face of foreign threats.

Should the Oman talks fail and military action be initiated, the consequences could ripple far beyond Iran’s borders-destabilizing Iraq, provoking retaliatory strikes on US bases, and endangering global oil markets. A miscalculation or miscommunication at this juncture could lead to the kind of regional war that all parties publicly claim to want to avoid.

The world will be watching closely on April 12. Whether diplomacy prevails or force is unleashed may well depend on whether either side is willing to abandon entrenched narratives and take genuine steps toward compromise. For now, however, the rhetoric from Washington suggests that the road to peace remains perilously narrow.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings