As tensions simmer in the Persian Gulf and global attention turns once again to the high-stakes negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran is reportedly leaning toward a pragmatic but limited solution: an interim nuclear deal. According to Axios, citing a European diplomat and another unnamed source, Iran has deemed it unrealistic to reach a comprehensive agreement within the two-month window set by the United States. Instead, it may opt for a stopgap accord that temporarily addresses key nuclear concerns while allowing room for broader negotiations later.

This potential shift in strategy comes as Iranian and American delegations prepare to meet in Oman for talks this weekend. The negotiations mark a rare point of potential thaw between the two adversaries, albeit laced with deep-seated mistrust, political posturing, and military threats.

On April 9, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian struck a cautious but firm tone. “We are ready for engagement,” he said, “but this engagement must be indirect, dignified, and accompanied by clear guarantees, because we still do not trust the other side.” His comments underscore the deep skepticism within Iran’s leadership regarding American intentions, particularly in light of the US withdrawal from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

That deal, struck under the Obama administration and endorsed by the United Nations, was seen as a diplomatic triumph. It significantly curtailed Iran’s nuclear activities in return for economic relief. However, in 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA, accusing Tehran of violating its terms-a claim contested by international inspectors at the time. Trump subsequently reimposed a wide range of sanctions, reigniting hostilities and prompting Iran to ramp up its uranium enrichment levels.

Now, Trump is back at the helm, and despite his prior hardline stance, he appears to view dialogue as essential. “We don’t have much time,” Trump told reporters on April 9. “We’re not going to let [Tehran] have a nuclear weapon.” When asked if he would resort to military force if diplomacy failed, the president responded unequivocally: “Absolutely.”

While comprehensive disarmament or a return to the original JCPOA framework appears unlikely in the short term, an interim deal could serve both sides’ immediate interests. According to Axios, such an agreement might involve Iran suspending parts of its uranium enrichment program-specifically, halting or slowing the enrichment of uranium to 60% purity, a level dangerously close to weapons-grade. Additionally, Tehran might agree to dilute existing enriched uranium stockpiles and enhance access for UN inspectors to its nuclear facilities.

In exchange, Iran could demand significant concessions from Washington-chiefly, a suspension of the “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign that has crippled its economy. These sanctions, reimposed and expanded by Trump after the JCPOA collapse, target everything from banking and oil exports to shipping and aviation. For Iran, sanctions relief is not merely a political demand but an economic lifeline.

Yet such a provisional agreement faces significant hurdles, not least of which is domestic opposition in both countries. In the US, hardliners in Congress-particularly those aligned with the Republican Party-are likely to denounce any deal as appeasement. Similarly, within Iran, the shadowy influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as well as conservative factions wary of any American engagement, could complicate implementation.

Further heightening tensions is the recent US military buildup in the Middle East, ordered by Trump earlier this month. Though the White House describes the move as precautionary, the messaging is unmistakable. In public comments, Trump has not ruled out military action if talks fail. Some observers interpret this as a negotiating tactic meant to intimidate Tehran into compliance, while others warn it could easily spiral into direct confrontation.

The memory of the 2020 US assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad-an act that nearly triggered open war-still looms large in the minds of Iranian officials and the broader public. It serves as a grim reminder of how fragile diplomacy can be when combined with brinkmanship.

An interim nuclear deal, if realized, would carry profound implications for regional stability. Israel, long a vocal critic of Iran’s nuclear program, would likely reject any agreement short of complete dismantlement. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that Tehran is merely buying time to pursue a nuclear weapon covertly-an accusation Iranian leaders vehemently deny.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab states may take a more nuanced view, welcoming any step that reduces the risk of war but wary of Iran’s regional ambitions. Meanwhile, Russia and China-both JCPOA signatories-are likely to support a diplomatic outcome, particularly one that undercuts unilateral US sanctions.

For Europe, which has consistently urged a return to the JCPOA framework, even a limited deal could be a welcome relief. With conflicts flaring in Ukraine and Gaza, European leaders are eager to avoid another destabilizing flashpoint in the Middle East.

The talks in Oman may not produce immediate results, but they represent a rare opportunity to reverse a dangerous trajectory. While hopes for a full-fledged revival of the JCPOA are dim, an interim deal could offer a temporary off-ramp from escalation.

Still, the road ahead is fraught with peril. A two-month deadline is a tightrope walk in diplomatic terms, particularly with so many variables at play. Trust is in short supply. The memory of broken promises, assassinations, and covert sabotage hangs over the table. And the looming threat of war is never far away.

In that context, even a modest agreement-a pause, a freeze, a handshake through intermediaries-would mark a significant, if fragile, achievement. It might not resolve the core disputes, but it could buy time, reduce risks, and keep open the possibility of a more durable peace. For a region and a world on edge, that might be enough-for now.

Please follow Blitz on Google News Channel

The post Iran eyes interim nuclear deal amid dwindling timeline and tense US talks appeared first on BLiTZ.

[Read More]

—–
Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings