The global security landscape is undergoing a seismic shift, and nowhere is this more apparent than in Europe. With the looming return of Donald Trump to the White House, a scenario that seems increasingly plausible, European leaders are being forced to rethink their strategic priorities. Trump’s “America First” approach, characterized by transactional diplomacy and a growing disdain for traditional alliances, has injected both chaos and urgency into the European security debate.

While many perceive Trump’s foreign policy as reckless and destabilizing, others argue that his actions serve as a much-needed wake-up call for Europe. The European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), and Canada are now confronting an unavoidable truth: the post-World War II security architecture that relied heavily on American guarantees is eroding. With or without Trump, the US is no longer the steadfast protector of European sovereignty that it once was. In this shifting reality, European nations must decide whether they will rise to the occasion by strengthening their own defenses or remain dangerously reliant on an increasingly unpredictable ally.

A fundamental split is emerging in global security strategy. One camp advocates for the use of brute force to alter borders, expand influence, and consolidate power-a model exemplified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggressive posturing in the Indo-Pacific. The other camp remains committed to the principles of national sovereignty, self-defense, and the rule of law, striving to uphold democratic values in an increasingly unstable world.

European leaders find themselves at a critical juncture, forced not only to choose sides but to actively defend the values they espouse. This necessity stems from a harsh reality: inaction and complacency could lead to the loss of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the freedoms that have defined the continent for decades.

Historically, external shocks have prompted nation-states to reinvent themselves. Trump’s foreign policy, erratic as it may be, could prove to be such a shock for Europe. His transactional approach to NATO-demanding that allies pay their “fair share” or risk abandonment-has exposed the complacency that has plagued European defense policy for years. While Trump’s rhetoric often appears reckless, it does reflect an uncomfortable truth: Europe has long depended on the US security umbrella without fully shouldering the financial and strategic burden of its own defense.

For decades, NATO has served as the bedrock of Western security, shielding its members from external threats and ensuring stability across the continent. However, Trump’s skepticism towards the alliance has raised existential questions about its future. If Washington steps back, can NATO survive without American leadership?

Several alternatives have been proposed, but none appear to be viable in their current form. A “coalition of the willing” that excludes the US has yet to materialize into a concrete defense structure. The concept of an E5 group-consisting of the UK, France, Germany, Poland, and Italy-has been floated as a potential interim solution. However, internal divisions within the group, particularly Italy’s ambiguous stance on Russia and its possible alignment with Trump, complicate matters. Some experts argue that an expanded E5, including the Baltic states, could provide a more effective framework for European security. These countries not only share borders with Russia but also boast well-funded, well-equipped militaries and mobilized societies ready to defend their sovereignty.

French President Emmanuel Macron was among the first European leaders to acknowledge the continent’s growing dependence on the US and the need for strategic autonomy. As early as 2017, he called for an EU-led security initiative, famously describing NATO as “brain dead” in 2019. His argument was simple: European nations could no longer rely on the US for their security and needed to develop independent defense capabilities.

Macron’s warnings became even more prescient following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In response, 44 European nations came together within the European Political Community, offering aid to Kyiv and demonstrating newfound unity. However, despite these efforts, the response remained largely reactive and dependent on US leadership.

If Europe failed to take decisive action in 2022, it cannot afford to repeat that mistake in 2025. The need for a unified European defense doctrine has never been greater. While the EU, UK, and Canada may be hesitant to break away from their long-standing alliance with Washington, they must acknowledge that the US is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Whether Trump’s return accelerates this shift or not, the writing is on the wall: American foreign policy is becoming increasingly isolationist, and Europe must adapt accordingly.

For Europe, adapting to this new reality does not mean severing ties with the US. Rather, it involves crafting a security framework that allows for independence while maintaining strategic cooperation with Washington. This will require several key actions:

Increased Defense Spending – European nations must finally meet and exceed the 2% GDP target for defense spending that NATO has long advocated. This includes ramping up investments in advanced military technologies, cyber capabilities, and defense manufacturing.

Strengthening the European Defense Industry – Reliance on American military hardware must be reduced. European defense contractors should be prioritized in procurement decisions, ensuring that vital military infrastructure remains within the continent’s control.

Deepening Security Cooperation Among EU Members – The EU must move beyond symbolic statements and take tangible steps toward military integration, joint defense exercises, and intelligence-sharing initiatives.

Enhanced Coordination with Canada and Non-EU Allies – While Europe’s primary focus will be on strengthening internal security structures, cooperation with key partners such as Canada, Norway, and the UK remains critical.

A New European Strategic Command – A centralized military command structure, similar to NATO’s but independent of American leadership, could provide the coordination needed for a robust European defense initiative.

Trump’s return to the presidency would undoubtedly introduce volatility into global politics. However, European leaders must view this as an opportunity rather than a crisis. If his administration forces Europe to break free from its security dependence on the US, it could mark the beginning of a more self-sufficient, resilient, and strategically independent continent.

While the US remains a crucial ally, European nations must come to terms with the fact that Washington’s priorities are shifting. The European security order, built on decades of American leadership, is being challenged. Whether this shift results in greater instability or a stronger, more autonomous Europe depends entirely on how European leaders choose to respond.

History has shown that moments of crisis often serve as catalysts for renewal. If Europe can seize this moment, it may emerge stronger than ever-ready to defend not just its borders but its values, sovereignty, and way of life in an increasingly uncertain world.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings