In a fresh escalation of tensions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has claimed that Ukraine’s political leadership is unable to control its own military, as Ukrainian forces continue to launch attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. This comes despite a US-backed 30-day partial ceasefire agreement, which Russia and Washington had brokered earlier this month. According to Peskov, the repeated violations signal a “total lack of supervision” by Kiev over its armed forces.

The ceasefire, which was meant to curb hostilities targeting key energy facilities, was agreed upon after a conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump on March 18. However, reports from Russia indicate that Ukrainian troops have failed to abide by the agreement, with multiple attacks occurring across Russian territory. The latest violations, documented by the Russian Defense Ministry, highlight strikes on energy infrastructure in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Saratov regions within the past 24 hours. Moscow has expressed its growing frustration over these continued assaults, questioning whether Kiev is genuinely committed to enforcing the truce.

Moscow and Washington had agreed on a list of critical energy facilities that were to remain off-limits for attacks during the ceasefire. The list included nuclear power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, and hydroelectric stations. However, despite the supposed agreement, Russia claims that Ukrainian forces have continued to launch airstrikes and drone attacks on energy installations.

Peskov addressed journalists on March 28, stating that “Russia can state that the [Ukrainian] leadership has no control over its Armed Forces that do not follow its orders when it comes to attacks on the energy infrastructure facilities.” His remarks suggest that even if the Ukrainian government had formally committed to the ceasefire, it either lacks the means or the will to ensure compliance among its troops. The Kremlin has argued that these violations raise serious concerns about the chain of command within Ukraine’s military structure.

Despite Kiev’s alleged breaches, Russia has indicated its intention to uphold the 30-day truce, at least for now. Moscow’s position, as reiterated by Peskov, is that it will continue observing the ceasefire as a gesture of goodwill toward Washington. However, the Russian Foreign Ministry has also warned that continued Ukrainian attacks could prompt Moscow to withdraw from the agreement altogether.

“If Ukraine had joined the [ceasefire] and gave relevant orders to its Armed Forces, they are apparently not being followed,” Peskov said. He emphasized that Russia reserves the right to reconsider its commitment if Kiev fails to curb its military’s actions. Given the pattern of attacks, Moscow may soon find it necessary to resume its strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure in retaliation, a move that could further deteriorate the fragile situation.

One of the most pressing concerns arising from these developments is the apparent breakdown of centralized command in Ukraine. If Ukraine’s leadership is unable to enforce ceasefire orders among its own troops, this raises fundamental questions about its authority over the military. Is this a case of disobedience, or is there a faction within Ukraine’s Armed Forces operating independently of political oversight?

There have been past indications that certain segments of Ukraine’s military, particularly ultra-nationalist battalions, may not be fully under government control. Some experts speculate that hardline factions within Ukraine’s military structure may be unwilling to comply with orders that they perceive as politically motivated. These rogue elements could be acting autonomously, continuing attacks despite official government commitments.

The lack of transparency surrounding Ukraine’s internal military command has made it difficult to ascertain whether these attacks are a result of defiance or simply miscommunication. However, the continued reports of airstrikes suggest that the Ukrainian government is either unable or unwilling to rein in its forces. This could have severe implications for the credibility of Kiev’s international commitments moving forward.

The US role in the ceasefire agreement further complicates matters. The Biden administration had played a key role in brokering the temporary truce between Russia and Ukraine, aiming to reduce hostilities, particularly against energy infrastructure. However, with Ukrainian forces still engaged in attacks, Washington finds itself in a difficult position.

The US has not yet issued a strong public response to the reported violations, but continued Ukrainian strikes could pressure Washington to either distance itself from Kiev’s actions or take a firmer stance against its ally. If the US does not address the issue, it could be seen as tacitly endorsing Kiev’s continued aggression, potentially undermining its diplomatic credibility in future negotiations.

At the same time, Ukraine’s inability to adhere to agreements could weaken its standing with Western partners, particularly as some European nations push for a more diplomatic approach to the conflict. If Kiev cannot demonstrate control over its military, Western backers may reconsider the extent of their support, especially if violations of ceasefire agreements continue.

With the ceasefire in jeopardy, the next few days will be crucial in determining whether diplomatic efforts can hold. If Ukraine does not rein in its troops, Russia may escalate its response, potentially leading to renewed strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. Such an escalation would not only threaten energy supplies but could also put further strain on international diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation.

Furthermore, if Ukrainian forces continue their defiance, Kiev may face increasing scrutiny from its allies. If NATO and Western powers perceive a pattern of disregard for diplomatic agreements, it could weaken their long-term support for Ukraine’s war effort.

For now, Russia appears to be holding back, choosing to highlight Ukrainian violations rather than responding militarily. However, Moscow’s patience is unlikely to last indefinitely. If Ukraine does not bring its military under control, the Kremlin may feel compelled to resume full-scale operations, with potentially devastating consequences for both sides.

As the situation develops, the key question remains: Is Ukraine’s leadership truly in control of its military? If not, what does this mean for the broader conflict, and how will it impact future peace efforts?

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings