Turkish-American relations have long been shaped by a complex interplay of strategic interests, political divergences, and shifting geopolitical realities. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington, marking a critical moment in bilateral relations. Their discussions covered an array of pressing issues, including defense cooperation, trade agreements, and regional security concerns. Concurrently, diplomatic preparations are underway for reciprocal visits by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US President Donald Trump, following what Ankara described as a “highly positive” phone conversation between the two leaders. The US, in turn, characterized the dialogue as “transformational,” signaling a potential shift in the trajectory of the relationship.

For years, the relationship between these NATO allies has been constrained by a series of unresolved disputes, with each new US administration inheriting and often exacerbating these tensions. The Biden administration saw an increase in disagreements over issues such as Syria, defense procurement, and Turkiye’s relations with Russia. However, with Trump’s return to the White House, Ankara senses an opportunity to recalibrate ties with Washington on more favorable terms. The fundamental question remains: Can Turkiye and the US build a stable and mutually beneficial partnership, or will the persistent undercurrents of divergence once again undermine rapprochement?

One of the most contentious issues in Turkiye-US relations is Washington’s military presence in Syria. Fidan emphasized to Rubio that Trump should withdraw US troops from the region, arguing that such a move would be financially beneficial for Washington. Turkiye’s message to the US is clear: regional actors are capable of managing the fight against Daesh without US involvement. Ankara also views the US support for Kurdish militias, particularly the YPG, as a direct threat to its national security. The YPG, which has been a key US partner in combating Daesh, is regarded by Turkiye as an extension of the PKK, a designated terrorist organization.

Under the Biden administration, this issue remained a major irritant, as Washington continued its support for Kurdish militias despite Ankara’s objections. However, Trump has previously expressed skepticism about maintaining a prolonged US military presence in Syria, having attempted to withdraw American troops during his first term. This aligns with Turkiye’s position and could lead to a major policy shift, should Trump be persuaded that continued US engagement in Syria is unnecessary.

Another critical point of divergence has been Turkiye’s relationship with Russia. Under Biden, Ankara’s economic and military cooperation with Moscow-particularly its acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system-was a major source of friction. Washington imposed sanctions on Turkiye and removed it from the F-35 fighter jet program in response. Trump, however, has taken a more pragmatic stance on Russia, often viewing diplomatic engagement as a strategic necessity rather than a liability.

Ankara sees this as an opportunity. The Erdogan government believes that the Trump administration’s more flexible approach to Moscow could ease tensions surrounding Turkiye’s defense ties with Russia and possibly pave the way for lifting sanctions. Furthermore, Ankara and Washington may find common ground in leveraging their respective relations with Moscow to negotiate peace initiatives in Ukraine, as highlighted during Fidan’s visit.

Defense cooperation remains the bedrock of Turkish-American relations. Turkiye’s strategic location and military capabilities make it an indispensable NATO ally, and despite past disputes, both nations understand the importance of maintaining robust military ties. One of Ankara’s key expectations from Washington is the removal of sanctions and the resumption of technical discussions on the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) and the F-35 program.

During Trump’s first term, he initially refrained from imposing CAATSA sanctions on Turkiye following its purchase of the S-400 system. However, in 2020, amidst mounting pressure from Congress and escalating tensions over US policy in the Middle East, sanctions were eventually imposed. With Trump back in office, Ankara hopes to reverse these measures and reintegrate into the F-35 program, where it was both a manufacturer and a buyer.

Fidan’s visit also underscored the significant influence of lobbies in shaping US foreign policy toward Turkiye. Erdogan openly stated that “despite all the challenges, and despite the lobbies seeking to poison the cooperation between our two countries,” Turkiye and the US should work toward meaningful collaboration. This remark highlights Ankara’s longstanding concerns about the influence of Armenian, Greek, and Jewish lobbies in Washington.

The Armenian lobby actively campaigns against Turkiye on issues related to historical grievances and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Greek lobby focuses on disputes in the Aegean Sea and Cyprus. Meanwhile, the Jewish lobby, which previously played a role in strengthening Turkish-Israeli relations, has distanced itself from Ankara due to Erdogan’s strong criticisms of Israel, particularly concerning the ongoing conflict in Gaza. These lobbying efforts present a formidable challenge for Turkiye as it seeks to redefine its relationship with Washington under Trump.

One of the most notable developments from Fidan’s visit was the US administration’s silence on recent domestic events in Turkiye. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem ?mamoglu and other opposition figures sparked the largest protests in the country in over a decade. However, the US State Department opted not to comment on these developments, marking a departure from previous US positions. This suggests that Trump’s administration is prioritizing material interests over ideological concerns, adopting a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy.

Historically, US-Turkiye relations have been subject to fluctuations driven by a mix of economic interests, security concerns, and political tensions. The key to establishing a more sustainable partnership lies in the ability of both nations to focus on shared strategic goals while managing their differences constructively. Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy may provide an opening for Turkiye to negotiate favorable terms on key issues, but the unpredictable nature of his administration also poses risks.

If a new era in Turkish-American relations is to begin, it must be built on a foundation of mutual respect for national and regional interests. While the recent discussions between Fidan and Rubio suggest a potential thaw in relations, underlying divergences remain. The unpredictability of the Trump administration, coupled with the evolving geopolitical landscape, makes long-term stability in bilateral ties uncertain.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether Turkiye and the US can capitalize on this diplomatic opening. Will the two countries manage to resolve their longstanding disputes and strengthen their alliance, or will familiar patterns of friction resurface? In Turkish-American relations, every convergence carries the seeds of a hidden divergence. The challenge will be navigating these complexities while advancing common strategic interests.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings