The United States is considering lifting certain sanctions on Russia in a bid to facilitate the revival of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a move that has sparked backlash from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky. President Donald Trump confirmed on March 25 that his administration is actively evaluating possible sanctions relief as part of ongoing discussions aimed at settling the Ukraine conflict.

According to statements from both the White House and the Kremlin, the proposed agreement would see the US assisting in restoring Russia’s access to global markets for agricultural and fertilizer exports. This would include lowering maritime insurance costs, expanding access to ports, and easing restrictions on financial transactions related to food and fertilizer sales.

Moscow’s statement elaborated further, emphasizing that the deal would also entail the lifting of restrictions on the Russian Agricultural Bank, other financial institutions, and Russian vessels. Additionally, sanctions on port services, as well as on the country’s ability to purchase agricultural machinery and related goods, would be removed.

While the White House refrained from disclosing details of the negotiations, President Trump acknowledged the ongoing deliberations when speaking to reporters on March 25.

“They will be looking at them, and we’re thinking about all of them right now. There are about five or six conditions. We’re looking at all of them,” Trump said, without specifying which sanctions were under review or what conditions would need to be met for the relief to be granted.

Trump’s remarks indicate that Washington is seriously considering a shift in its sanctions policy toward Moscow, a significant departure from the hardline approach previously maintained by the Biden administration. This recalibration appears to be driven by pragmatic concerns over global food security, as well as efforts to establish a broader framework for resolving the Ukraine conflict.

Ukraine’s President Zelensky reacted with outrage to the reports that the US was engaging in sanctions discussions with Russia without fully consulting Kiev. In a statement later on March 25, Zelensky accused Washington of undermining Ukraine’s negotiating position by entertaining the possibility of sanctions relief.

“We did not agree to this so that it would be in a joint document. We believe that this is a weakening of positions and a weakening of sanctions,” Zelensky declared.

Zelensky’s stance reflects broader concerns in Kiev that any easing of sanctions could embolden Moscow and reduce Western leverage in pressuring Russia to make concessions. Since the start of the Ukraine conflict, Kiev has repeatedly called for tighter sanctions on Russia, arguing that economic pressure is essential for countering Moscow’s military actions.

The decision to review sanctions coincides with renewed efforts by the US and Russia to revive the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Following 12 hours of expert-level negotiations in Saudi Arabia on March 24, both sides reached a preliminary understanding aimed at restoring the trade corridor originally brokered in July 2022 by the United Nations and Türkiye.

The agreement had initially been established to ensure the safe passage of Ukrainian agricultural exports in exchange for Western commitments to ease sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer shipments. However, Russia pulled out of the deal in 2023, citing repeated failures by the West to uphold its obligations.

Moscow has since demanded firm guarantees that future agreements will not be unilaterally disregarded by Washington and its allies. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stressed that Moscow will require a “direct order” from the US to ensure that Kiev complies with the terms of any renewed agreement.

The potential easing of sanctions represents a delicate balancing act for the US, which has led global efforts to isolate Russia economically since the start of the Ukraine conflict. Any move toward sanctions relief risks being perceived as a concession to Moscow, particularly among European allies and hardliners in Washington who have pushed for a maximalist approach against Russia.

At the same time, Washington faces growing pressure from non-Western nations that have urged a more pragmatic stance on global trade disruptions caused by the war. With food security emerging as a critical concern, especially for countries in Africa and Asia, restoring stability to grain exports from both Ukraine and Russia is becoming an increasingly pressing issue.

For Moscow, securing sanctions relief on its agricultural sector would mark a significant diplomatic victory, reinforcing its narrative that Western economic measures are failing to bring Russia to its knees. If successful, the move could also open the door to broader negotiations on economic relations between Russia and the West.

Despite the ongoing negotiations, significant hurdles remain. The US will need to navigate domestic political opposition from lawmakers who oppose any perceived softening of the stance against Russia. Additionally, European allies, particularly those in Eastern Europe, may resist moves that could be seen as undermining Ukraine’s position in ongoing peace efforts.

On the Russian side, skepticism remains over whether Washington will actually follow through on its commitments. Moscow has repeatedly accused the West of reneging on previous agreements, and it is unlikely to accept any deal without watertight guarantees.

Furthermore, while the Black Sea Grain Initiative serves as a potential stepping stone for broader diplomatic engagement, it does not address deeper security concerns or territorial disputes at the heart of the conflict. With fighting continuing on the ground, any agreement on grain exports remains a temporary fix rather than a pathway to a lasting peace.

The US decision to review its sanctions policy toward Russia as part of negotiations to restore the Black Sea Grain Initiative signals a possible shift in Washington’s approach to the conflict. While this move reflects growing recognition of the economic consequences of prolonged sanctions, it has also triggered strong opposition from Ukraine’s leadership, which sees any easing of pressure on Moscow as a strategic setback.

As discussions continue, the Biden administration will need to weigh the trade-offs between geopolitical strategy and global economic stability. Whether this initiative leads to meaningful diplomatic progress or simply marks another fleeting attempt at negotiation remains to be seen.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings