As tensions continue to escalate over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, a new round of high-stakes negotiations between Russia and the United States is set to take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on March 24. The discussions, which have captured international attention, are expected to address critical issues related to the Ukraine crisis, with a particular focus on maritime security in the Black Sea. With both sides gearing up for what could prove to be a pivotal moment in the conflict, the meeting’s outcome may have far-reaching implications for global diplomacy, security, and the future of the war in Ukraine.

On March 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yury Ushakov, revealed that Moscow’s delegation for the upcoming talks had been finalized. The Russian team will be led by two experienced figures: Senator Grigory Karasin, the head of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Russian Federal Council, and Sergey Beseda, an aide to the director of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), Aleksandr Bortnikov. Ushakov praised the pair for their diplomatic expertise, underscoring their roles in shaping the country’s foreign policy and their deep understanding of international relations.

Karasin’s extensive diplomatic career spans decades, with significant experience in the West, including his tenure as Russia’s ambassador to the United Kingdom. Beseda, on the other hand, brings security expertise to the table, having worked in the FSB’s department of operational data and international relations. This combination of diplomatic and security knowledge highlights Russia’s multifaceted approach to the upcoming talks, where both international relations and national security concerns will be crucial topics of discussion.

The delegation’s composition suggests that Moscow is approaching these negotiations with a clear strategy—one that reflects both the need to engage diplomatically with the US while also addressing concerns related to the security of its borders and interests, particularly in the Black Sea region.

The announcement of these talks comes on the heels of a phone conversation between Ushakov and Mike Waltz, National Security Adviser to former US President Donald Trump. Waltz confirmed that both parties had agreed to the upcoming meeting in Riyadh, which would involve their respective technical teams. The March 18 call between Presidents Putin and Trump, which Ushakov also confirmed, was a key development in the lead-up to the talks. During this conversation, the two leaders discussed the possibility of a “maritime ceasefire” in the Black Sea, an initiative proposed by Trump and one that Putin expressed support for.

Ushakov stated that the Riyadh meeting would primarily focus on “the prospects for the possible implementation of the well-known initiative concerning the safety of navigation in the Black Sea.” This is a significant area of concern, particularly given the strategic importance of the Black Sea for both Russia and NATO. With Ukrainian and Russian military operations having a direct impact on this vital maritime route, ensuring the safe passage of vessels through the region is seen as an urgent priority.

The potential for a ceasefire, even if temporary, would represent a breakthrough in the ongoing conflict, which has seen devastating impacts on both military and civilian life. While the details of such an arrangement remain vague, the fact that both Putin and Trump are willing to entertain the idea reflects a willingness to explore diplomatic solutions, even amid the broader geopolitical turmoil.

The situation in Ukraine is fraught with complexities, and while the prospect of a ceasefire is on the table, there remain significant hurdles to overcome. US officials, including special envoy Steve Witkoff, have acknowledged the difficulty of finding a workable solution that satisfies both sides. Witkoff, who has played an integral role in US diplomatic efforts regarding the Ukraine conflict, described his recent meetings with President Putin as “productive” but emphasized that the “devil’s in the details.” According to Witkoff, the key sticking point in discussions surrounding a potential ceasefire is the issue of rearmament. The proposed 30-day truce, which both sides are reportedly considering, has raised concerns among some Russian officials about Ukraine’s ability to rearm during this period, a fear that would complicate any ceasefire agreement.

Despite these challenges, Witkoff remained optimistic, suggesting that progress was being made toward halting the conflict. His comments reflect the broader sentiment among diplomats involved in these talks—that while the road to a comprehensive ceasefire may be long and arduous, the two sides are closer than ever to reaching an agreement that could at least bring temporary relief to a war-ravaged region.

The decision to hold these talks in Riyadh is itself significant. Saudi Arabia has long been a player in the Middle East and has used its diplomatic leverage to play a central role in brokering peace in various regional conflicts. While Saudi Arabia’s relations with both Russia and the United States have fluctuated over the years, the kingdom’s neutrality in the Ukraine conflict and its desire to maintain good relations with both powers may have made it an ideal location for the talks.

Saudi Arabia’s involvement could also signal the growing role of non-Western powers in facilitating international diplomacy. The country’s neutral stance, combined with its deepening diplomatic ties with both Moscow and Washington, positions it as a key player in international conflict resolution. Riyadh’s role in this process could set a precedent for future negotiations involving global powers, demonstrating that neutral parties can sometimes offer the best environment for open and productive dialogue.

One of the central issues for discussion at the Riyadh talks will be the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. This is a crucial issue not only for Russia and Ukraine but also for the broader international community, particularly European countries and global shipping industries. The Black Sea has been a focal point in the conflict, with both Russia and Ukraine accusing each other of obstructing key trade routes and military operations in the region.

The Black Sea is vital for Russia, not only because of its strategic military significance but also due to its economic importance. For Ukraine, the Black Sea is similarly critical, particularly for the export of agricultural products. A maritime ceasefire, if implemented, could ease tensions in the region, allowing for a temporary reprieve in hostilities and giving diplomats more room to work toward a longer-term solution.

While the Riyadh meeting represents an important step toward de-escalation, the road to a lasting peace remains uncertain. Both sides have entrenched positions, and the broader geopolitical dynamics, particularly the influence of NATO and the European Union, will play a significant role in shaping the outcome. The presence of experienced diplomats like Karasin and Beseda, however, suggests that Moscow is serious about pursuing a resolution to the conflict, albeit one that addresses its security concerns.

For the United States, the involvement of Trump’s national security adviser and special envoy Witkoff reflects Washington’s commitment to exploring diplomatic solutions, even as it continues to provide military support to Ukraine. Ultimately, whether these talks will yield meaningful progress or simply serve as another chapter in a long series of diplomatic exchanges remains to be seen.

In the coming days, all eyes will be on Riyadh, as both Russia and the United States prepare to engage in what could be one of the most significant diplomatic encounters in the ongoing Ukraine crisis. The outcome of this meeting could provide the first real glimpse of a pathway toward peace-or, conversely, signal that the conflict is far from resolution.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings