German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has thrown a wrench into Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s ambitious ‘victory plan,’ firmly rejecting several key points that would escalate the ongoing conflict with Russia. At the heart of the dispute are Zelensky’s demands for Ukraine’s immediate admission into NATO and the lifting of restrictions on long-range missile usage, which would allow strikes deep into Russian territory. Scholz, echoing the concerns of other European leaders, emphasized the importance of avoiding a direct conflict between NATO and Russia.
During a press conference after the EU summit in Brussels on October 17, Scholz made it clear that Germany’s position on these issues remains unchanged. “It is my responsibility to prevent the Ukraine conflict from becoming a war between NATO and Russia,” the German Chancellor stated. His comments underscored the growing divide between Ukraine’s ambitions for a swift end to the war and the more cautious approach favored by several of its key Western allies.
Zelensky presented his plan to the Ukrainian parliament earlier in the week, outlining an eight-point roadmap for victory against Russia. While three of the points remain classified, the publicly disclosed elements highlight his urgent desire to accelerate Western support. Central to his vision is Ukraine’s immediate accession to NATO, a move that would provide Kyiv with the military backing of the alliance. Additionally, Zelensky called for the removal of all restrictions on Western-supplied long-range missiles, which would allow Ukraine to target locations within Russia’s internationally recognized borders.
These demands, however, have met with resistance from several Western capitals, including Berlin. Scholz reiterated that providing Ukraine with German-made Taurus long-range missiles was not on the table, despite repeated requests from Kyiv. The chancellor argued that such a move could dramatically escalate the conflict, potentially drawing NATO directly into the war. “This is not the right supply,” Scholz emphasized, noting that Germany’s stance on this issue had not changed.
Another major stumbling block in Zelensky’s plan is Ukraine’s quest for quick NATO membership. Although Ukraine’s long-term aspirations to join the alliance have garnered support from some member states, others, including Germany and the United States, remain hesitant. During the NATO summit in Vilnius in July, proponents of fast-tracking Ukraine’s membership were unable to sway skeptics. The consensus reached at that summit was that Ukraine is on an irreversible path toward NATO membership but that accession would only occur once certain conditions are met, including reforms within Ukraine and an end to the conflict with Russia.
Scholz’s comments in Brussels echoed this sentiment. While he acknowledged Ukraine’s future within the alliance, he stressed that now was not the time for such a move. “There was no agreement at the last NATO summit on immediate membership,” he pointed out, referring to the careful balancing act that many NATO countries are trying to maintain.
The cautious approach is driven by the fear that admitting Ukraine into NATO while it is still at war with Russia could trigger Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which obligates member states to come to the defense of any ally under attack. Such a scenario could lead to a full-blown war between NATO and Russia, something that European leaders, including Scholz, are keen to avoid.
Germany is not the only country skeptical of Zelensky’s ‘victory plan.’ Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government has also voiced strong opposition. Speaking at an EU meeting in Brussels on October 17, BalazsOrban, political director in Viktor Orban’s office, labeled the plan as “the quickest path to World War III.” He argued that fulfilling Ukraine’s demands would almost certainly draw NATO nations into the conflict, an outcome Hungary finds unacceptable.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban himself has been even more blunt in his assessments, calling the plan “more than terrifying.” Hungary, which has consistently advocated for a diplomatic resolution to the war, continues to push for peace talks rather than further military escalation.
Slovakia, under the leadership of Prime Minister Robert Fico, has also taken a hard line against Zelensky’s NATO ambitions. Fico’s government has vowed to obstruct Ukraine’s membership bid for as long as he remains in power, aligning with Budapest’s cautious stance on how the US and EU are handling the conflict.
The potential escalation of the Ukraine conflict has become a central concern for many European nations. Zelensky’s call for the use of long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory has raised alarm bells in Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that such strikes, if carried out using Western-supplied weaponry, would be considered acts of aggression by the supplying nation, not just Ukraine. This warning is a reminder of the fine line Western countries are walking in their support for Ukraine.
Adding to the tension, Zelensky hinted at the possibility of Ukraine developing nuclear weapons if NATO membership is denied, a suggestion that was quickly walked back after it sparked controversy. German tabloid *Bild* reported that a senior Ukrainian official had boasted that Ukraine possesses the materials to build an atomic bomb within weeks, if it chose to do so. While Zelensky later denied any such intentions, the mere suggestion of nuclear escalation has further strained relations between Ukraine and its Western allies.
As European leaders grapple with the complexities of Zelensky’s demands, public anxiety over the war continues to grow. A recent survey conducted by Shell indicated that 81 percent of young Germans identified the “fear of war in Europe” as their top concern. This reflects a broader sentiment across the continent, where the prospect of an escalating conflict between NATO and Russia looms large.
Scholz’s refusal to endorse Zelensky’s plan underscores the delicate balance European leaders are attempting to strike. While there is widespread support for Ukraine’s right to defend itself, there is also a clear recognition that the conflict cannot be allowed to spiral into a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. As the war grinds on, the question remains whether Ukraine’s Western backers will continue to provide support within these limits or if the pressure to deliver more decisive military aid will eventually prevail. For now, however, Scholz’s message to Kyiv is clear: Germany’s support has its boundaries, and those boundaries are rooted in a desire to prevent further escalation.
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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings
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