The historic breakfast meeting in Doha between the foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Iran’s new foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, could signify a critical turning point in relations between Tehran and its Gulf Arab neighbors. Though informal and held on the sidelines of the third Asian Cooperation Dialogue summit, this gathering was the first known instance of Iran and all GCC states coming together as a group. The novelty and symbolism of the meeting suggest the potential for a renewed dialogue, especially at a time of heightened tension in the Middle East.

This meeting took place amidst the backdrop of escalating conflicts between Israel and Iran. Israel’s incursion into Lebanon and its crushing of Hezbollah, Iran’s key regional proxy, has been a severe blow to Tehran’s influence. Iran has struggled to respond effectively, and its military retaliation-launching 180 missiles into Israel-was widely perceived as inadequate. These developments have damaged Iran’s credibility, raising concerns in Tehran about its regional standing and highlighting its diplomatic isolation.

Additionally, Tehran has found itself increasingly marginalized on the global stage. Relations with the United States and Europe have deteriorated following the failure of nuclear deal negotiations and Iran’s alleged involvement in Russia’s war in Ukraine. The new administration in Tehran, under President Masoud Pezeshkian, appears to recognize the need for change. This historic meeting in Doha may be the beginning of a strategic recalibration by Iran, as it attempts to mend relationships with the GCC.

Relations between Iran and the GCC have been fraught with tensions since the Iranian Revolution in 1979. While there have been periodic efforts to bridge differences, these have mostly been short-lived, with fundamental disagreements remaining unresolved. Central to the friction are concerns over Iran’s influence in regional crises, its nuclear ambitions, and support for groups that destabilize GCC nations.

One of the longstanding divides has been Iran’s interventionist foreign policy. While the GCC has consistently aligned its approach with principles of international law-emphasizing sovereignty, non-interference, and territorial integrity-Iran has been accused of violating these norms. Tehran’s support for militias and proxy groups operating across the region has complicated efforts to foster meaningful diplomatic ties.

Additionally, Iran’s nuclear program continues to be a major sticking point. The GCC has repeatedly voiced concerns about the risks posed by Tehran’s ambitions and has called for greater involvement in any regional or international discussions on the matter. Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, frequently directed at GCC member states, only exacerbate these anxieties.

For the GCC, a primary concern in talks with Iran is security. The Gulf states are keen to secure energy infrastructure and trade routes, essential for global economic stability. Iran, and its regional allies, have in the past posed significant threats to these routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. The conflict in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have targeted international shipping, is a clear example of how Iran’s activities impact the region’s security architecture.

Another major issue is Iran’s occupation of three UAE islands-Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb-which has been a contentious point for over 50 years. Despite repeated calls from the GCC for the matter to be referred to the International Court of Justice, Tehran has refused to engage in legal arbitration. Moreover, recent Iranian claims to the Durra gas field, which is jointly owned by Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, have further strained relations.

The need for Iran to address these specific concerns is paramount if relations are to improve. Progress made through the recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, brokered by China, suggests that diplomacy can yield results. However, beyond the symbolic restoration of diplomatic ties and the exchange of ambassadors, meaningful progress has been slow.

The Pezeshkian administration in Iran has expressed its desire to “turn a new page” in relations with the international community, especially its regional neighbors. This shift in tone was evident during the UN General Assembly last month, where Aragchi sought to rekindle dialogue with various stakeholders, including the US, Europe, and the GCC.

For the GCC, the potential for progress depends on Iran’s willingness to address the core concerns. If Tehran is serious about normalizing relations with the Gulf states, this historic meeting could mark the start of a more cooperative era. However, much will depend on how Iran navigates the complicated regional landscape, including its ongoing relationship with Hezbollah, the war in Yemen, and its nuclear ambitions.

Diplomatic breakthroughs will require significant compromises from both sides. The GCC, in turn, has shown its readiness to engage in dialogue, particularly after Saudi Arabia and Iran’s rapprochement. However, restoring relations with Bahrain remains a critical piece of the puzzle. Bahrain, which has long accused Iran of interference in its internal affairs, will need reassurances from Tehran before relations can be fully restored.

The historic breakfast meeting in Doha between the GCC and Iranian foreign ministers could well be a turning point in Gulf-Iran relations. It signals a potential shift from confrontation to dialogue, but the path ahead is fraught with challenges. For Iran, addressing the GCC’s security and political concerns is essential if it seeks to reintegrate itself into the regional fold. For the Gulf states, engagement with Iran offers the possibility of stabilizing a volatile region and reducing the risks of conflict.

If Tehran’s new administration can follow through on its promises to turn a new page, and if both sides can begin to rebuild the trust that has been eroded over decades, the meeting in Doha may one day be remembered as the beginning of a new, more peaceful chapter in Gulf-Iran relations. The region’s people, with their shared cultural and economic histories, are eager for normalization, but the politics of the last 40 years will be difficult to overcome. Only time will tell if this historic meeting is the catalyst for lasting change.

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Source: Weekly Blitz :: Writings